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2012 - 11th Annual NC State Summer Undergraduate Research Symposium
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Session Time :
8/1/12 3:00 PM - 8/1/12 4:14 PM
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Content Area : Computation for Undergraduates in Statistics Program (NCSU CUSP)
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Lead Student Presenters : Marisa Kathleen Akers
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Abstract Title : Evaluating radar reflectivity measurements as predictors of rainfall
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Abstract :
To improve predictions of weather system models, it is important to have accurate measurements of precipitation at all locations. Actual amounts of rainfall have high variability across space and time, and patterns are generally unpredictable. Gauges measure rainfall, but only at specific locations. Therefore, a reliable prediction method for all locations in a given region is needed. One common method of predicting rainfall is to use measurements of reflectivity from radars. However, radar data is not directly comparable to gauge data because they measure reflectivity and actual precipitation amounts, respectively. The data analyzed contains 406 radar measurements covering about 62,000 square miles in Kansas for August 2004. We match these hourly readings to the 180 gauge stations in this region by the day and hour of measurement. Our main goal is to evaluate how radar reflectivity measurements can be used to predict precipitation. To address this goal, we examine zero-inflated regression models with precipitation as the response variable and radar reflectivity readings as a covariate. Additionally, spatial kriging methods utilizing zero-inflated models are explored.
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Mentor and/or Co-Author : Brian J Reich
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