The objective of PHENEC is to determine how phenology shapes the spatial distribution of species in a changing climate, by considering the increase in both, mean temperature and temperature variability. Our research hypothesis is that variability in phenology drives species distribution and notably their spread rates.By changing the time window of some biological stages, the population could either survive better and accelerate the range expansion to favorable nearby areas, or instead, individuals could be exposed to more stressful conditions leading to the decrease of population abundance, and thus range pinning or even contraction. In PHENEC, we will consider the pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopea pityocampa (Denis & Schiffermüller) (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae) as our biological model (see section 1c.). Mmodel simulations, based on observations and experimentations, will be conducted to reveal these underlying mechanisms.